Group
How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
Make a Prediction
| Period | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31 | 28% | |||
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31 | 50% | |||
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31 | 50% | |||
2040-01-01 to 2059-12-31 | 16% | |||
2060-01-01 to 2099-12-31 | 15% | |||
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 93
Authors:
Opened:Oct 8, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2125
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2125
Authors:
Opened:Oct 8, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2125
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2125
