Question

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction

24%

(20% - 29%)

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50%

community: 24%

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Authors:

RyanBeck Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 25, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 27, 2023

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

929k

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

5.1×10²⁶

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

2.6×10²⁵

Authors:

RyanBeck Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 25, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 27, 2023

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

929k

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

5.1×10²⁶

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

2.6×10²⁵