Question
Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters90
Community Prediction
0.1%
(0.1% - 1%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Baseline Score
96.4
Community Peer Score
5.0
Authors:
Opened:Feb 4, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 6, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?
90%
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
63%
Authors:
Opened:Feb 4, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 6, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?
90%
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
63%