17 comments
146 forecasters
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?
85%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 5, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jul 12, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 6, 2018
Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?
5% chance
98
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
21% chance
422
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
33% chance
41