147 forecasters

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Nov 5, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 12, 2040

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 6, 2018

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Will A.I. Actually Want to Kill Humanity? - The New York Times

New York Times•Oct 16, 2025

Superintelligent AI Threatens Humanity: A Game-Changing Analysis

Forbes•Oct 14, 2025

Scientists reveal the exact date when technology will surpass human intelligence - and there's not long to wait

Daily Mail•Oct 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?