Question

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters145

Community Prediction

85%

(65% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 85%

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Nov 5, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2040

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 12, 2040

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 6, 2018

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Risk management

Ethics

Existential risk from AGI

Cybersecurity standards

Future of Life Institute

AI control problem

Cyber-security regulation

AI Willing to Kill Humans to Avoid Being Shut Down, Report Finds

Newsweek•Jun 22, 2025

Sam Altman says he was largely right in predicting how quickly AI would develop — but not how people would react

Business Insider•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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