Question

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?

Resolved:Yes

17 comments17

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction

85%

(75% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 85%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

3.9

Community Peer Score

2.2

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

May 2, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 4, 2023

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Checking In on AI and the Big Five

•Jun 23, 2025

A.I. Computing Power Is Splitting the World Into Haves and Have-Nots

New York Times•Jun 23, 2025

Sam Altman says he was largely right in predicting how quickly AI would develop — but not how people would react

Business Insider•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.28

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

3.1×10²⁵

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

10%

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

May 2, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 4, 2023

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Checking In on AI and the Big Five

•Jun 23, 2025

A.I. Computing Power Is Splitting the World Into Haves and Have-Nots

New York Times•Jun 23, 2025

Sam Altman says he was largely right in predicting how quickly AI would develop — but not how people would react

Business Insider•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.28

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

3.1×10²⁵

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

10%