17 comments
43 forecasters
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?
85%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 85% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolved:Sep 6, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:May 4, 2023
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How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
5.56 labs
(4.2 - 7.7)
5.56 labs
(4.2 - 7.7)
52 forecasters
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
2.8×10²⁵ FLOP
(4.8×10²⁴ - 3.4×10²⁶)
2.8×10²⁵ FLOP
(4.8×10²⁴ - 3.4×10²⁶)
24 forecasters
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
4% chance
81