assembling intelligent wisdom assembling calibrated understanding delivering probable futures composing contingent forecasts modeling critical insights mapping the future generating definitive wisdom composing precise understanding modeling probable predictions composing calibrated forecasts formulating predictive forecasts calculating precise predictions exploring definitive predictions predicting contingent understanding
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight at the end of this year?

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is an eminent organization born out of the Manhattan project at the dawn of the age of atomic weapons.

It is comprised of scientists and policy makers with a mission of tracking catastrophic threats to humanity including nuclear war, global climate change, and others, and educating the public about these threats.

Probably the most well-known program of the Bulletin is the Doomsday Clock, which provides a barometer of the overall level of catastrophic risk we face, in the form of "minutes to midnight" and based on a number of considerations including nuclear arsenals, nuclear material security, CO2 and temperature rise, etc.

At the beginning of 2016, the decision was made to keep the clock at three minutes to midnight, as close to midnight as any time since 1953 when it was set at two minutes to midnight. At the beginning of 2017, the Bulletin will again decide how to set the clock, based on its assessment of global security.

Will the Bulletin advance the clock to two or fewer minutes to midnight?

Categories: Environment – Climate, Physical Sciences – Nuclear Physics

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.