Metaculus Help: Spread the word

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If Metaculus creates a Patreon account, how much will be pledged after 2 months?

Following a suggestion in the forum, Metaculus is strongly considering (i.e. 90+% likelihood) creating a Patreon account where members of the community can pledge levels of support to help support operation of the site. This is a short-term step on the longer road to a sustainable financial model. Per the Patreon model, users will be invited to pledge (say) $5-$100/month to support Metaculus content generation, feature adds, and community growth, and be rewarded with various minor perks.

If such an account is opened, and announced onsite and in a newsletter on given date X,

What will be the total pledged monthly support two months after date X?

Resolves ambiguous if no Patreon account is launched by Jan 15, 2019.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

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Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.