Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

Will Lee Sedol defeat AlphaGo in any of the three games remaining?


Attention worldwide has been riveted to the unfolding match between Go master Lee Sedol and DeepMind's new Go-playing AI system AlphaGo, with millions of viewers watching, and a million dollars (along with some portion of the human mind's dignity) at stake.

Prior to the match, Metaculus had pegged a 64% probability of an overall AlphaGo victory.

So far, AlphaGo has prevailed in two games played on March 8th and 9th. Although Sedol felt he had made some weak moves in game one, Sedol and many commentators felt that he played a very strong second game that was very close until the very end.

With the match now at 2-0, the question becomes not just whether Sedol can with the match, but whether he can win any of the three remaining games.

(Note: This question's closing time will be retroactively changed to 30 minutes prior to end of the first game won by Sedol, or alternatively the 5th game of the match if Sedol does not win any games.)

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site