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Will Lee Sedol defeat AlphaGo in any of the three games remaining?

Attention worldwide has been riveted to the unfolding match between Go master Lee Sedol and DeepMind's new Go-playing AI system AlphaGo, with millions of viewers watching, and a million dollars (along with some portion of the human mind's dignity) at stake.

Prior to the match, Metaculus had pegged a 64% probability of an overall AlphaGo victory.

So far, AlphaGo has prevailed in two games played on March 8th and 9th. Although Sedol felt he had made some weak moves in game one, Sedol and many commentators felt that he played a very strong second game that was very close until the very end.

With the match now at 2-0, the question becomes not just whether Sedol can with the match, but whether he can win any of the three remaining games.

(Note: This question's closing time will be retroactively changed to 30 minutes prior to end of the first game won by Sedol, or alternatively the 5th game of the match if Sedol does not win any games.)


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.