Question

Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?

Resolved:Yes
11
11
Total Forecasters57
Community Prediction
51%
(34% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 51%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
-18.8
Community Peer Score
5.5
Authors:
dschwarzPeterWildefordwill_aldred
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolves:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 19, 2023
Regulation of AI
Artificial Intelligence
2021-2025 Leaderboard