3 comments
84 forecasters
Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?
0.5%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:May 23, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 15, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 25, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?
11% chance
45
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?
80% chance
141
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
40% chance
41