Question
When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?
Resolved:28 May 2024 12:00Total Forecasters14
Community Prediction
03 Jul 2024
(29 Feb 2024 - 05 Nov 2024)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 29 Feb 2024 | — |
| median | 03 Jul 2024 | — |
| upper 75% | 05 Nov 2024 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >01 Jan 2026 | 1.5% | — |
What was the final result?28 May 2024 12:00
Community Baseline Score
1.0
Community Peer Score
13.4
Authors:
Opened:May 30, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolves:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 1, 2023
Authors:
Opened:May 30, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolves:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 1, 2023