Group

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

225 forecasters

Total Forecasters 54

Sudan

Niger

Haiti

Democratic Republic of Congo

Afghanistan

Ethiopia

Country		My Prediction		Me
Turkey	5%

Sudan	yes

Niger	67%

Haiti	62%

Democratic Republic of Congo	61%

Afghanistan	55.1%

Ethiopia	53%

Libya	annulled

Iraq	42%

Burkina Faso	40%

Venezuela	40%

Lebanon	37%

Angola	23%

Nigeria	21.7%

Russia	20%

Iran	20%

Sri Lanka	18%

Pakistan	15%

Zimbabwe	15%

Egypt	13%

Sierra Leone	10%

Colombia	10%

South Africa	9%

El Salvador	9%

Bosnia and Herzegovina	8%

Kenya	7.5%

North Korea	5%

Cuba	5%

Ecuador	5%

China	2.5%

Kazakhstan	2.5%

Mexico	2%

Brazil	2%

India	2%

United States	2%

Israel	2%

Phillipines	2%

Serbia	2%

Argentina	1.5%

Thailand	1.5%

Saudi Arabia	1%

France	1%

Hungary	1%

United Kingdom	1%

Greece	1%

Jamaica	1%

Romania	1%

Latvia	1%

Vietnam	1%

Morocco	1%

Indonesia	1%

Germany	1%

Canada	0.4%

Japan	0.3%

Australia	0.3%