conditional
if yes
if no
Make a Prediction
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known |
|---|---|
| My Prediction: - | |
| My Prediction: - |
CDF
The question "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?" resolves.
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <Mar 2020 | 0.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 30 Mar 2025 | — |
| median | 19 Apr 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 05 Apr 2029 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2200 | 0.3% | — |
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:May 30, 2023
Closed:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Authors:
Opened:May 30, 2023
Closed:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200