21 comments
132 forecasters
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
0.4%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 28, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Dec 31, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 30, 2023
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
40% chance
41
Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?
9% chance
44
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
3% chance
54