Question
When will we have transformative AI?
Total Forecasters156
Community Prediction
Feb 2039
(01 Feb 2030 - May 2058)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 01 Feb 2030 | — |
| median | Feb 2039 | — |
| upper 75% | May 2058 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2100 | 10.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 8, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 11, 2023
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
4.16
In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?
Oct 2050
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
1.5×10²⁹
Authors:
Opened:Nov 8, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 11, 2023
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
4.16
In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?
Oct 2050
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
1.5×10²⁹