62 comments
162 forecasters
When will we have transformative AI?
Current estimate
Dec 2040
Key Factors
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Nov 8, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 11, 2023
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.74 years
(-0.906 - 14)
3.74 years
(-0.906 - 14)
65 forecasters
In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?
Nov 2053
(Jan 2036 - 2104)
Nov 2053
(Jan 2036 - 2104)
114 forecasters
Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
3.7×10²⁹ FLOP
(1.4×10²⁸ - 9.3×10³¹)
3.7×10²⁹ FLOP
(1.4×10²⁸ - 9.3×10³¹)
7 forecasters