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14 forecasters
3
0 comments
14 forecasters
Natural Sciences
condition

Novel Pathogen in China November 2023?

Resolved:No
14 forecasters
if yes
if no

25M Killed by Pandemic 2022 to 2031

5%
5%
Resolved:Annulled

25M Killed by Pandemic 2022 to 2031

4%
4%
if Yes5%
if No4%
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5Y after AGI, engineered pandemic?

5%chance
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Will there be a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

5%chance
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WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030

18%chance
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Current estimate
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1 comment18 forecasters

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29%chance
1 comment9 forecasters

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50%chance
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53%chance
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