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Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 24
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| Year | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
2030 | 29.5% | |||
2040 | 70% | |||
2035 | 45% | |||
2025 | no | |||
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 12, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?
Will the US and China reach a formal agreement to limit frontier AI training or deployment before 2029?
8%
Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?
25%
Authors:
Opened:Mar 12, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?
Will the US and China reach a formal agreement to limit frontier AI training or deployment before 2029?
8%
Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?
25%