Question

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Resolved:No

2 comments2

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

98.3

Community Peer Score

7.1

Authors:

penti

Opened:

Jan 30, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 2, 2024

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Trump hedges on NATO Article 5 commitment

•Jun 24, 2025

Trump hedges on NATO Article 5 commitment

•Jun 24, 2025

Ahead of this week's NATO summit, Europe is uncertain about its old ally, the U.S.

•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

90%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Authors:

penti

Opened:

Jan 30, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 2, 2024

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Trump hedges on NATO Article 5 commitment

•Jun 24, 2025

Trump hedges on NATO Article 5 commitment

•Jun 24, 2025

Ahead of this week's NATO summit, Europe is uncertain about its old ally, the U.S.

•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

90%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%