Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Zapping Zika #1: First vaccine trials by January 2017?


The Zika Virus has grown into a major health threat with the realization that this virus, previously considered fairly innocuous, can cause birth defects including microencephaly, as well as many other issues.

Spread primarily by the Aedes Mosquito, Zika is currently being trasmitted person-to-person in 44 countries and territories.

This has motivated a major vaccine development effort, with a reported 18 agencies and companies working on a vaccine.

Probably earliest on the horizon is an effort by the NIH:

The US National Institutes of Health (NIH), for instance, is developing a DNA-based vaccine in which genetic material from the Zika virus would be used to induce an immune response.

This could begin testing as early as December; "inactivated" and "live attenuated" vaccines are also in the works by other agencies, but on a longer timescale. Taking account of some potential delays:

By the end of January 2017, will the NIH begin tests of a Zika vaccine on healthy volunteers?

Resolution is by reliable media report or source.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.