predicting probable understanding calculating probable predictions predicting definitive futures delivering contingent contingencies delivering contingent forecasts mapping the future delivering quantitative forecasts delivering intelligent insights composing contingent predictions generating definitive futures delivering probable insights exploring probable estimations assembling contingent contingencies predicting probable forecasts

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Zapping Zika #1: First vaccine trials by January 2017?

The Zika Virus has grown into a major health threat with the realization that this virus, previously considered fairly innocuous, can cause birth defects including microencephaly, as well as many other issues.

Spread primarily by the Aedes Mosquito, Zika is currently being trasmitted person-to-person in 44 countries and territories.

This has motivated a major vaccine development effort, with a reported 18 agencies and companies working on a vaccine.

Probably earliest on the horizon is an effort by the NIH:

The US National Institutes of Health (NIH), for instance, is developing a DNA-based vaccine in which genetic material from the Zika virus would be used to induce an immune response.

This could begin testing as early as December; "inactivated" and "live attenuated" vaccines are also in the works by other agencies, but on a longer timescale. Taking account of some potential delays:

By the end of January 2017, will the NIH begin tests of a Zika vaccine on healthy volunteers?

Resolution is by reliable media report or source.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.