111 forecasters

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran57%

Saudi Arabia15%

South Korea10%

Iran

Saudi Arabia

South Korea

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Dumbledores_Army

Opened:

Apr 2, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Trump has threatened to give Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine – but can they turn the tide of the war?

Independent•Oct 16, 2025

Trump has threatened to give Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine - but can they turn the tide of the war?

Independent•Oct 15, 2025

Army’s nuclear comeback: Sweeping new program aims to break ‘tyranny of fuel’ at bases across the globe

FOX News•Oct 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?

How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?