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60 forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?
0.1%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 21, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 24, 2024
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?
80% chance
28
Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?
31% chance
50
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?
80% chance
43