38 forecasters

Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

3%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

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Authors:

ADQ johnnycaffeine

Opened:

May 3, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

May 6, 2024

Grey zone, Chinese taste

Strategic Culture•Sep 9, 2025

China Scrambles Jets Against Canadian and Australian Warships: What To Know

Newsweek•Sep 8, 2025

Xi Jinping asks the world to choose ‘war or peace.’ Which direction is China headed?

CNN•Sep 6, 2025

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