Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q6 - Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain by end of 2019


Dylan Matthews and Kelsey Piper of Vox's Future Perfect have done the internet a solid by making public probabilistic predictions. For this series, we've Metaculus-ized a smattering for your delectation. We suggest you start with the first question in the series, here.

From Vox's Future Perfect 2019 Series, which originally ran 1.15.19:

The spread of plant-based meat alternatives was one of the big stories of 2018, and it’s a trend that looks like it’ll keep gaining momentum in 2019. The Impossible Burger, a plant-based burger famous for tasting more like slaughtered meat, is currently available only in restaurants, but the startup dramatically expanded production last year with a new Oakland facility projected to eventually produce 1 million pounds of plant-based meat a month. Last fall, it announced that the burger would hit grocery stores in 2019. Nothing is a sure thing until it’s on the shelves, but I think the company is very likely to hit its target. —KP

Future Perfect's prediction: 95%**

The question resolves positive by credible media report or press release indicating that Impossible Burger meat is being sold in a national grocery chain as defined by wikipedia's list of national chains by the end of 2019

Visit the other questions in the Future Perfect 2019 Series:

Q1. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union

Q2. US homicides will decline

Q3. Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018

Q4. More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018

Q5. No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019

Related Non-Series Questions:

Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?

A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?

A decrease in US meat production by 2025?

Will interest in Veganism decrease prior to 2020?

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.