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Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?
The prospects for "contact" with an extraerrestrial civilization have been the subject of endless speculation. It is generally agreed that no evidence of such civilizations exists. Indeed, the apparent lack of aliens, in conjunction with the known profusion of stars and planets, forms the basis for the so-called Fermi Paradox.
The announcement in the news media of the detection of an alien-generated signal, or some other strong evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization, would clearly generate quite a bit of interest. This would be especially true if the announcement was authorized by a reputable and authoritative source or coalition of sources. Examples might include NASA, NSF, ESO, IAU, AAS, etc. Depending on the content of the message, or on the nature of the evidence, societal implications could potentially be profound.
By December 31, 2019, will the New York Times publish an article suggesting that reasonable scientific evidence for an extraterrestrial civilization has been found?
Note that this question is not asking whether extraterrestrial contact will actually take place. Despite strong efforts at both peer review and confirmation, official press releases on scientific topics of public interest are sometimes more definitive in tone than is warranted by later consensus. The 1996 New York Times article describing evidence for fossil life in the Martian meteorite ALH 84001 is a good example. If you believe there is a negligible probability of actual aliens, your answer to this question amounts to your assessment of the probability that a widely publicized false alarm will occur.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.