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If the UK leaves the EU without a deal in 2019, will the UK enter a recession by 2021?

The United Kingdom is currently the world's fifth-largest economy and hasn't suffered a recession since 2009. However, Brexit, and especially the UK's withdrawing without a deal is believed to potentially cause the UK economy to contract.

If the United Kingdom withdraws from the EU in 2019 without a withdrawal agreement with the European Union, will the United Kingdom experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts before (and excluding) Q1 2021?

This question resolves positive if the UK experiences two successive quarters of negative economic growth before (and excluding) Q1 2021, as measured by the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter real GDP. Resolution should cite statistical release by the Office for National Statistics, UK Treasury or credible media reports in the financial press. This question resolves ambiguous if the UK does not withdraw from the EU without a withdrawal agreement in 2019.

Related question: Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?


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