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If the UK leaves the EU without a deal in 2019, will the UK enter a recession by 2021?
The United Kingdom is currently the world's fifth-largest economy and hasn't suffered a recession since 2009. However, Brexit, and especially the UK's withdrawing without a deal is believed to potentially cause the UK economy to contract.
If the United Kingdom withdraws from the EU in 2019 without a withdrawal agreement with the European Union, will the United Kingdom experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts before (and excluding) Q1 2021?
This question resolves positive if the UK experiences two successive quarters of negative economic growth before (and excluding) Q1 2021, as measured by the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter real GDP. Resolution should cite statistical release by the Office for National Statistics, UK Treasury or credible media reports in the financial press. This question resolves ambiguous if the UK does not withdraw from the EU without a withdrawal agreement in 2019.
Related question: Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.