composing critical contingencies composing accurate predictions crowdsourcing probable insights computing quantitative understanding crowdsourcing calibrated estimations mapping the future formulating precise estimations exploring intelligent forecasts calculating precise insights forecasting calibrated insights crowdsourcing quantitative wisdom mapping contingent wisdom crowdsourcing calibrated forecasts calculating quantitative insights

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the current DRC Ebola outbreak end by February 2020?

Note: This question was resolved ambiguous because a clash was discovered between the title and resolution criteria. Since this clash was discovered rather late, it was decided that this question should resolve ambiguous to prevent unfair losses of MIPs by those who predicted based on the resolution criteria or title alone.

The replacement of this question can be found here.


The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which started in August 2018, is now "out of control". It was previously asked whether it would kill more than 400 people, and then more than 1000. Both having happened, it is sadly time for a third question.

Will the outbreak still be ongoing by the 29th of February 2020?

Resolution:

  • negative if it has been declared over by the WHO before midnight the 29th of February 2020.
  • positive otherwise

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.