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Will the current DRC Ebola outbreak end by February 2020?
Note: This question was resolved ambiguous because a clash was discovered between the title and resolution criteria. Since this clash was discovered rather late, it was decided that this question should resolve ambiguous to prevent unfair losses of MIPs by those who predicted based on the resolution criteria or title alone.
The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which started in August 2018, is now "out of control". It was previously asked whether it would kill more than 400 people, and then more than 1000. Both having happened, it is sadly time for a third question.
Will the outbreak still be ongoing by the 29th of February 2020?
- negative if it has been declared over by the WHO before midnight the 29th of February 2020.
- positive otherwise
Metaculus help: Predicting
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.