calculating critical contingencies composing definitive predictions formulating definitive contingencies exploring definitive estimations delivering quantitative estimations mapping the future crowdsourcing critical estimations generating critical predictions delivering predictive forecasts formulating predictive estimations generating quantitative futures modeling precise futures crowdsourcing accurate understanding exploring contingent understanding

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?

The Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) regularly polls the Hong Kong population and publishes survey results on various questions. It was previously known as the University of Hong Kong Public Opinion Programme (HKUPOP), but became independent from the university in 2019.

One of these is the "People's Satisfaction with the Current Political Condition", which reports answers to the question:

Generally speaking, how much are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the present political condition in Hong Kong?

With possible answers: Very positive / Quite positive / Half-half / Quite negative / Very negative / Don't Know or Hard to Say.

The median satisfaction is defined as the lowest satisfaction such that 50% of respondents who expressed an opinion (i.e. excluding "Don't know" or "Hard to Say") are at least that satisfied. For example in March 2019, the answers were: 3.6% / 13.3% / 13.9% / 29.8% / 32.2% / 7.1%. So the median satisfaction was "Quite negative" (32.2 + 29.8 = 62.0 > (100-7.1)/2= 46.45).

The median satisfaction has been "Very negative" since June 2019. This has only happened in October 2016 and February 2016.

Question: When will the above-defined median satisfaction of Hongkongers with the political condition in Hong Kong be "Quite negative" or better?

This will close and resolve retroactively to the lowest day in the "Date of survey" column for any survey results after July 2019 that satisfies the criteria.

This resolves ambiguous if HKPORI does not publish relevant survey results for 3 months in a row prior to August 2019 for any reason, or if they change their methodology in a way that makes the results not comparable with previous values (as judged by a Metaculus admin), or if their results are not trustworthy anymore (as judged by a Metaculus admin).

Importantly, this does not resolve ambiguous if HKPORI merely changes name / organisation, similar to when it transitioned from HKUPOP.

This resolves to > 2020-08-31 on the 30th if September 2020 if it has not resolved yet (either normally or ambiguously).

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.