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When will the median Hongkonger be merely "quite disatisfied" with the present political condition in Hong Kong, according to HKPORI?

The Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) regularly polls the Hong Kong population and publishes survey results on various questions. It was previously known as the University of Hong Kong Public Opinion Programme (HKUPOP), but became independent from the university in 2019.

One of these is the "People's Satisfaction with the Current Political Condition", which reports answers to the question:

Generally speaking, how much are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the present political condition in Hong Kong?

With possible answers: Very positive / Quite positive / Half-half / Quite negative / Very negative / Don't Know or Hard to Say.

The median satisfaction is defined as the lowest satisfaction such that 50% of respondents who expressed an opinion (i.e. excluding "Don't know" or "Hard to Say") are at least that satisfied. For example in March 2019, the answers were: 3.6% / 13.3% / 13.9% / 29.8% / 32.2% / 7.1%. So the median satisfaction was "Quite negative" (32.2 + 29.8 = 62.0 > (100-7.1)/2= 46.45).

The median satisfaction has been "Very negative" since June 2019. This has only happened in October 2016 and February 2016.

Question: When will the above-defined median satisfaction of Hongkongers with the political condition in Hong Kong be "Quite negative" or better?

This will close and resolve retroactively to the lowest day in the "Date of survey" column for any survey results after July 2019 that satisfies the criteria.

This resolves ambiguous if HKPORI does not publish relevant survey results for 3 months in a row prior to August 2019 for any reason, or if they change their methodology in a way that makes the results not comparable with previous values (as judged by a Metaculus admin), or if their results are not trustworthy anymore (as judged by a Metaculus admin).

Importantly, this does not resolve ambiguous if HKPORI merely changes name / organisation, similar to when it transitioned from HKUPOP.

This resolves to > 2020-08-31 on the 30th if September 2020 if it has not resolved yet (either normally or ambiguously).


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