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When will there be a public clean meat co?

Cross-posted on Metaculus.

As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat, mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are Just and Memphis Meats). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies (McNamee and Ledley, 2013). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings was roughly $350M in 2018.

When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?

Resolution

This question resolves as the date when a privately held clean meat company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.

For the purpose of this question, a company is a "clean meat company" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words "clean meat", "cultured meat" or "in-vitro meat", "cultivated meat", "cell-based meat", or any variations where "meat" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. "clean beef"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline "clean meat company XYZ holds initial public offering".

The article should demonstrate that the term "clean meat" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term "clean meat" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.

Additionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.

This question is part of the clean meat series of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:

When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?

How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?

When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?
Categories: Animal Welfare Series, Clean meat series

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