delivering definitive predictions predicting precise wisdom generating precise contingencies composing accurate understanding assembling quantitative predictions mapping the future generating critical wisdom forecasting intelligent predictions delivering probable futures delivering calibrated contingencies predicting accurate understanding exploring intelligent forecasts calculating predictive contingencies delivering accurate contingencies

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?

Conventional meat produced by rearing animals is associated with a range of important global problems, including greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and freshwater consumption (McMichael et al, 2007). Additionally, animal advocates claim that industrial agriculture practices inflict harm upon farm animals and that factory farming might be causing substantial suffering.

Overfishing causes frequent population collapses, with fishing reducing population levels by several orders of magnitude (Le Pape et al. 2017). Restoring and preserving marine life is one of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, protecting ocean resources appears to be a low priority. In a survey of over 2,400 leaders in government, industry, and NGOs around the world, restoring and preserving marine life was least likely to be ranked among the six most important SDGs, and fisheries aid has fallen by 30% over the past five years (Blasiak and Wabnitz, 2017).

Several clean fish companies have recently started, amongst these are The US-based Blue Nalu and Finless Foods, the Canadian-based SeaFuture and the Singporean-based Shiok Meats.

An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies (McNamee and Ledley, 2013). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings was roughly $350M in 2018.

When will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?


Resolution

This question resolves as the date when clean fish company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.

For the purpose of this question, a company is a "clean fish company" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean meat company, using the terms "clean fish" or "clean meat company" producing "fish", where "clean meat" may be interchanged with "cell-based", "in vitro", "cultivated", or "cultured", and "fish" with any particular fish (e.g. "clean tuna"). Descriptions deemed to be synonymous with these criteria by an admin, or deemed to be accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English may qualify. An example of a qualifying description is the headline "clean salmon company XYZ holds initial public offering".

The article should demonstrate that the term "clean meat" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term "clean meat" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.

Additionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean fish related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.

This question is part of the clean meat series of our Animal Welfare forecasting project.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.