29 comments
1.2k forecasters
Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?
3%chance
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 20, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2025
Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?
92% chance
116
Will the Trump administration impose significant federal price controls before Jan 20, 2029?
61% chance
25
What will the effective US tariff rate on goods being imported into the United States be at the end of 2026?
9.67%
(7.93 - 11.5)
9.67%
(7.93 - 11.5)
394 forecasters