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How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?
As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states (Drouillard, 2018). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA (USDA, 2017).
Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent (USDA, 2019).
How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is greater than $20 per kg?
This question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, as reported by the US Department of Agriculture. Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.
This question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is strictly less than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if its sister question resolves below $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.
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