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Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?
It's been a while since we've had a nice, old-fashioned SpaceX rocket question. But Musk has been touting a new giant stainless steel Starship prototype, with plans that
In just one to two months, SpaceX will launch the Starship Mk1 up to a height of approximately 65,000 feet (20 kilometers) before returning to Earth and landing.
So, given a 2x time dilation, we'll ask:
by 00:00:01 UTC February 1, 2020, will SpaceX launch a Starship test vehicle?
By launch we specify that the vehicle attains a height of at least 100 m. The vehicle must be made predominantly of stainless steel and be at least 40m in height. It need not land successfully (though we could launch a short-fuse question to that as the launch gets closer.). Closes retroactively 1 week prior to launch, should one occur.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.