When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?

In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced the eradication of type 3 poliomyelitis. This followed the eradication of type 2, which was announced in 2015. Only type 1 remains in the wild, but the CDC, WHO, and other involved public health institutions are optimistic that it can be eradicated soon.

When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of all three serotypes of poliovirus?

Resolution

Types 2 and 3 have already been certified eradicated, but it's not impossible that the wild types could re-emerge naturally. (This actually happened in Nigeria in 2016, two years after the prior last reported natural cases in Africa.) This property of the virus has caused some reticence by the WHO about certifying the eradication--the last known type 2 case was in 1999, but the WHO didn't certify it until 2015. If another wild strain of type 2 or 3 re-emerges before the WHO certifies the worldwide eradication of type 1, this question will not be resolved until the WHO certifies the eradication of type 1 AND recertifies the eradication of the re-emergent type (or publicly declines to de-certify the earlier eradication).

Categories: Biology, Biology – Infectious Disease

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions

Continue exploring the site

random question question list

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Metaculus

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word