Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?
The Global Animal Partnership (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.
This basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:
Chickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).
As of writing this question, 228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens.
When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?
Companies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on the data reported by Chicken Watch. The current number can be found by entering the query issue "Broiler", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.
This question resolves as > Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.