composing critical predictions delivering accurate futures predicting precise futures predicting probable insights generating definitive wisdom mapping the future modeling intelligent futures forecasting quantitative understanding generating accurate estimations computing probable wisdom calculating intelligent insights formulating definitive forecasts delivering accurate forecasts forecasting quantitative predictions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the German Government bail out Deutsche Bank?

Deutsche Bank, one of the world's major financial institutions, is experiencing problems that threaten to undermine the confidence of its clients and investors. The U.S. Department of Justice has proposed a $14 billion fine associated with actions that the bank undertook in connection with the 2008 financial crisis. Deutsche Bank is also substantially leveraged, it has exposure to a wide array of derivative contracts, and it faces an environment in which its profitability lags the cost of capital.

Deutsche Bank reports that it has an adequate cash cushion to weather foreseeable difficulties. Many observers believe that the D.O.J.'s $14 billion figure simply represents a starting point for negotiations, and that the final fine will not materially weaken the bank. On the other hand, the bank's stock price has fallen substantially over the past year, and some are worried that a Lehman-like collapse could trigger a replay of the financial crisis. This article in the Financial Times outlines some of the possible paths forward for Deutsche Bank.

Prior to January 1, 2017, will the German Government provide emergency financing to Deutsche Bank to stave off a default by the bank on its obligations? For this question to resolve in the positive, this assistance could come in the form (1) of a government guarantee to backstop a discounted capital raise, (2) a direct injection of liquidity, (3) a forced merger with a bank in which the German Government already has an onwership stake, or (4) a purchase (or equivalent) of a >10% share in Deutsche Bank itself.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.