Question
What will the impact probability (in percent) of the asteroid 2024 YR4 be on March 27, 2025?
Resolved:0.0011Total Forecasters774
Community Prediction
<0.2
(<0.2 - <0.2)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.2 | 85.9% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | <0.2 | — |
| median | <0.2 | — |
| upper 75% | <0.2 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >15 | 1.3% | — |
What was the final result?0.0011
Community Baseline Score
111.7
Community Peer Score
106.7
Authors:
Opened:Feb 10, 2025
Closes:Mar 25, 2025
Resolves:Mar 27, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 13, 2025
Authors:
Opened:Feb 10, 2025
Closes:Mar 25, 2025
Resolves:Mar 27, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 13, 2025
