Question

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

35 comments35

Total Forecasters229

Community Prediction

11%

(4% - 24%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 11%

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Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jan 23, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2070

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2070

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 23, 2020

Technology

Geopolitics

Nuclear winter would bring mass starvation and death for years post-war, startling new study reveals: ‘We must be prepared’

New York Post•Aug 11, 2025

Scientists reveal exactly what a nuclear winter would look like – with starvation for BILLIONS up to 8 years after a global war

Daily Mail•Aug 11, 2025

80 years after Hiroshima, nuclear weapons haunt global politics

New York Post•Aug 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

22%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

26%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jan 23, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2070

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2070

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 23, 2020

Technology

Geopolitics

Nuclear winter would bring mass starvation and death for years post-war, startling new study reveals: ‘We must be prepared’

New York Post•Aug 11, 2025

Scientists reveal exactly what a nuclear winter would look like – with starvation for BILLIONS up to 8 years after a global war

Daily Mail•Aug 11, 2025

80 years after Hiroshima, nuclear weapons haunt global politics

New York Post•Aug 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

22%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

26%