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Authors:
Opened:Feb 27, 2025
Closes:Nov 30, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 14, 2025
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
875 forecasters
Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?
1% chance
290
Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?
0.1% chance
35