Question

Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?

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3 comments3

Total Forecasters285

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(0.1% - 2.8%)

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50%

community: 1%

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Authors:

kikollan

Opened:

Feb 27, 2025

Closes:

Nov 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 14, 2025

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Geopolitics

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Taiwan Gets Ready To Be Invaded

PJ Media•Jul 12, 2025

US Weapons Systems Feature in Taiwan Defense Drills Against China Invasion

Newsweek•Jul 10, 2025

Taiwan holds huge war games to role play Chinese invasion scenarios

Al Jazeera•Jul 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

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Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

0.1%