🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

139
218
Total Forecasters1354
Community Prediction30% (10% - 66%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 30%
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Up to 50% of all variation in lifespan may be due to genetic factors, indicating a significant but not exclusive role of genetics in determining longevity.
-1
The FOXO3 gene is closely associated with longevity, and particular variants of this gene are found more frequently in individuals aged 90 and above, suggesting a genetic basis for extended lifespan.
Authors:
Anthony
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Social Sciences
Health & Pandemics
Steven N. Austad
S. Jay Olshansky

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