generating quantitative insights exploring critical forecasts forecasting intelligent forecasts modeling predictive contingencies formulating predictive contingencies mapping the future computing quantitative forecasts delivering critical contingencies exploring calibrated estimations aggregating accurate wisdom calculating intelligent futures assembling probable contingencies aggregating accurate wisdom modeling intelligent contingencies

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

Covid-19, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak. The virus is at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV, the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Various research groups have started work on a vaccine to fight the virus, with some hoping to start human tests as early as May 2020.

Question: Will a vaccine targeted at the Covid-19 be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?

Details:

  • Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. This excludes media and institutions affiliated or otherwise under the control of the Chinese government.

  • A single vaccine has to be administered to 10000 people.

  • A vaccine can trigger:

    • Positive resolution if there is consensus that it protects against Covid-19.
    • Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.
  • Negative resolution occurs only when there is no vaccine triggering either positive or ambiguous resolution.

  • The aforementioned "consensus" shall be reached among non-china-affiliated medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.

  • This resolves whenever the relevant media reports are published, or on 2021-01-01 (whichever comes first).

  • If this resolves positively, it does not close retroactively (sorry for the lost points).

  • A single vaccine has to be administered to 10000 people.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.