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Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?
Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.
Covid-19, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak. The virus is at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV, the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.
Question: Will a vaccine targeted at the Covid-19 be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?
Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. This excludes media and institutions affiliated or otherwise under the control of the Chinese government.
A vaccine can trigger:
- Positive resolution if there is consensus that it protects against Covid-19.
- Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.
Negative resolution occurs only when there is no vaccine triggering either positive or ambiguous resolution.
The aforementioned "consensus" shall be reached among non-china-affiliated medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.
This resolves whenever the relevant media reports are published, or on 2021-01-01 (whichever comes first).
If this resolves positively, it does not close retroactively (sorry for the lost points).
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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