Question
When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?
Total Forecasters37
Community Prediction
12 Jul 2029
(12 May 2026 - Sep 2034)
Make a Prediction
CDF
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 12 May 2026 | — |
| median | 12 Jul 2029 | — |
| upper 75% | Sep 2034 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Feb 2050 | 2.1% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Feb 29, 2020
Closed:Jan 1, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 2, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Feb 29, 2020
Closed:Jan 1, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 2, 2020