Question

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

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Community Prediction
12 Jul 2029
(12 May 2026 - Sep 2034)

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QuartilescommunityMy Prediction
lower 25%12 May 2026
median12 Jul 2029
upper 75%Sep 2034
Upper bound
>Feb 20502.1%
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Opened:Feb 29, 2020
Closed:Jan 1, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 2, 2020