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Date COVID-19 vaccine will be administered to 10M people:

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

Covid-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak. The virus is at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV, the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Various research groups have started work on a vaccine to fight the virus, with some hoping to start human tests as early as May 2020.

Question: When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?


  • This question resolves as the date when one vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.

  • Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. This excludes media and institutions affiliated or otherwise under the control of the Chinese government.

The first Covid-19 vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:

  • Positive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against Covid-19.
  • Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.
  • No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against Covid-19

  • The aforementioned "consensus" shall be reached among non-china-affiliated medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.

If does not resolve before Mar 14, 2027, it resolves as >Mar 14, 2027. If it's not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.


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