Conditional Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

8 forecasters

if yes

if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)	Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
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if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 25%

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if No

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Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jul 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

NATO could spark all-out war with Russia if it shoots down drones over Ukraine, Moscow warns as Europe bolsters its borders amid invasion fears

Daily Mail•Sep 15, 2025

Russian drones force Europe to defend itself, perhaps alone, after Putin ‘put down a marker’ to NATO

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2025

Russian drones force Europe to defend itself, perhaps alone, as Putin puts 'down a marker' to NATO

Independent•Sep 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30% chance

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

858 forecasters

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

12% chance

120

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jul 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

NATO could spark all-out war with Russia if it shoots down drones over Ukraine, Moscow warns as Europe bolsters its borders amid invasion fears

Daily Mail•Sep 15, 2025

Russian drones force Europe to defend itself, perhaps alone, after Putin ‘put down a marker’ to NATO

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2025

Russian drones force Europe to defend itself, perhaps alone, as Putin puts 'down a marker' to NATO

Independent•Sep 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

30% chance

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

858 forecasters

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

12% chance

120