74 comments
625 forecasters
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?
Current estimate
13 Apr 2028
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 31, 2016
Closes:Jan 2, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 2, 2017
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
181 forecasters
When will AI wholly create an original, critically-acclaimed feature film?
Feb 2031
(09 Mar 2028 - Jun 2036)
Feb 2031
(09 Mar 2028 - Jun 2036)
103 forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
12 Jul 2027
(15 Feb 2026 - Mar 2031)
12 Jul 2027
(15 Feb 2026 - Mar 2031)
1.7k forecasters