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How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?

Caloric restriction is,

a dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. "Reduce" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage consumption, or relative to an average person of similar body type. [...] In a 2017 report on rhesus monkeys, caloric restriction in the presence of adequate nutrition was effective in delaying the effects of aging.

Assume that before 2150, the results from a high quality randomized control trial exploring the effects of caloric restriction on natural human lifespan are published. If such research is published, how many years will the researchers report caloric restriction adds on average?

For the purpose of this question, we exclude results from participants that

  • Did not regularly follow the best practices recommended by the researchers for caloric restriction

  • Quit caloric restriction at some point at least 5 years before their death.

  • Began caloric restriction after the age of 50.

Of the participants of the study who do qualify, what will be the mean lifespan gain, according to the best estimates of the researchers?


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