Question
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
Total Forecasters234
Community Prediction
20.8 months
(5.3 months - 99.9 months)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.033 | 3.0% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 5.297 | — |
| median | 20.84 | — |
| upper 75% | 99.94 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >360 | 14.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 5, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:May 7, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
28.7
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
07 Feb 2027
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
4.16
Authors:
Opened:May 5, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300
Spot Scoring Time:May 7, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
28.7
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
07 Feb 2027
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
4.16